Hedge fund manager Pierre Andurand believes Russian oil supplies in Europe will disappear in light of Vladimir Putin’s warmongering, as many traders expect crude prices to hit $250 a barrel this year.
The French oil trader said that after listening to local media reports, he was convinced Moscow’s aggression would last a long time, leading to reshaping global energy markets.
“They say we start with Ukraine, then we take Poland, then we take the Baltics, then we take all of Europe and then we nuke the United States,” he said. “Wake up, wake up. We will not resume our normal activities in a few months. So I think we are forever losing Russian supply on the European side.
Andurand has become one of the most well-known energy traders predicting the majority of major swings in oil markets over the past two decades.
Other oil market veterans speaking at the FT Commodities Global Summit in Lausanne agreed that Russian crude and refined products will not return to the European market anytime soon, even if a ceasefire with Ukraine was agreed.
Due to supply pressure, Doug King, head of the RCMA’s Merchant Commodity Fund, forecast oil prices to climb to between $200 and $250 a barrel this year, from $118 a barrel on Wednesday.
“It’s not transitory. It’s going to be a crude supply shock,” he said.
However, commodities trading group Trafigura was among the most bearish with Ben Luckock, the co-head of oil trading, predicting a record price of $150 a barrel this summer.