Bank of Japan Monetary Policy Statement October 2022

The two main policy axes are:

  • the minus 0.1% target for short-term interest rates
  • the objective of the 10-year bond yield around 0% (+25 bp cap, with a commitment to perform unlimited daily fixed-rate bond purchases in its defence)

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Outlook report, key forecasts:

    • Median core-core CPI forecast for FY2022 at +1.8 vs. +1.3% in July
    • Median core-core CPI forecast for FY2023 at +1.6% vs. +1.4% in July
    • Median core-core CPI forecast for FY2024 at +1.6% vs +1.5% in July
  • Median real GDP forecast for fiscal 2022 at +2.0% vs. +2.4% in July
  • Median real GDP forecast for fiscal year 2023 at +1.9% vs. +2.0% in July
  • Median forecast of real GDP for the financial year 2024 at +1.5% against +1.3% in July

Report commentary:

  • Japan’s economy is expected to recover from the impact of the pandemic and supply constraints ease
  • Uncertainty about the Japanese economy is extremely high
  • Risks to the price outlook are tilted to the upside
  • Risks to the economic outlook are tilted to the downside
  • Must be alert to financial market and currency movements and their impact on the Japanese economy, prices
  • Japan’s economy is recovering
  • from Japan inflation expectations rise
  • Consumption increases moderately
  • Core consumer inflation in Japan is hovering around 3% on rising energy, food and durable goods prices
  • Overseas economies show signs of slowing due to global inflationary pressures and central bank interest rate hikes
  • Japan’s economy set to rebound on expected surge in pent-up demand, despite headwinds from economic slowdown overseas
  • Corporate earnings are expected to remain at high levels due to pent-up demand and the positive effect of the weak yen
  • Core consumer inflation is expected to slow the pace of increase towards the middle of next fiscal year

  • Japan’s output gap will turn positive towards the second half of FY2022

More significant is this:

  • BOJ TO REVIEW ETF PURCHASE

These two in bold because you’re looking for a BOJ kingpin that’s about it for this meeting.

The full text of the statement is here