African economists are sounding the alarm over an impending and likely catastrophic drop in trade volumes between the continent and its warring partners if Russia’s widely condemned incursion into Ukraine is not short-lived.
But those gains are set to erode rapidly, analysts worry, signaling a serious disruption to food conditions in Africa if Russia’s military operation in Ukraine persists.
“Three months away from hunger”
Parts of Africa could be plunged into famine within three months if Russia’s invasion of Ukraine persists, says Wandile Sihlobo, chief economist at South Africa’s Chamber of Agricultural Affairs.
“In the short term, within three months, the conflict will affect the food supply primarily from a price perspective,” Sihlobo told CNN.
“As net importers of commodities like wheat, which influences bread and cereals, sunflower oil and maize, African countries are quite exposed to some of these supplies coming out of Russia and the EU. Ukraine: There will be challenges if the war continues for more than three months — because usually countries usually keep stocks of supplies for three to five months.”
“Food prices are already high now. If the war spreads, there will be millions of Africans who will go hungry. We already expect millions of people to go hungry in the drought-affected areas, so the ongoing conflict will escalate this,” he said.
Africa’s largest economies such as Nigeria, Egypt, South Africa, Algeria and Kenya are major importers of Russian agricultural exports, exposing them to further food price spikes if trade is disrupted.
Sihlobo adds that sanctions targeting Russia could also complicate exports from Africa.
“Africa exports fruits and vegetables to Russia and Ukraine. Seven percent of South Africa’s citrus goes to Russia, 14% of South Africa’s apples and pears go to Russia. Egypt and Tunisia also export fruits and vegetables to Russia. country is that with all the sanctions imposed on Russia by the United States and European countries, it influences the financial services sector… even if the logistics will not be immediately affected, it will disrupt the payment system of all country exporters to Russia,” he told CNN.
take sides in the conflict
“There will be significant pressure from the perspective of multilateral relations, as African countries may be forced to take a stand on the unfolding conflict between Russia and Ukraine, and this may negatively or positively affect relations between the ‘Africa and Russia in the future,” says Hadebe.
For Russian academic Irina Filatova, taking sides will not benefit Africa.
“It will not be in Africa’s interest to take sides. I think Africa can try to stay neutral,” said Filatova, an expert on Russian and African history.
Beyond agriculture, Russia is extending its influence in African states beset by insurgency by offering alternative military solutions to those offered by its Western counterparts, which are often determined by human rights considerations. man.
However, Russia has denied links to private military contractors such as the Wagner Group, which is accused of the abuses.
Hadebe told CNN that the arms trade is “one of the main features that have defined the commercial relationship between Russia and Africa”.
“Russia is the biggest arms exporter to sub-Saharan Africa in particular.”
According to Filatova, Russia’s prospects of doubling down on its interests in Africa may be higher in the aftermath of the war in Ukraine.
“Russia will be much more interested in maintaining relations with African countries than it has been so far… It has already started to develop these relations but in the situation of global isolation by the Western world, she will certainly try to maintain relations with Africa,” she told CNN.