European indices started the week on a positive note and US futures are recouping their losses after a Red Friday, but the news from Ukraine is worrying and risk appetite is certainly not strong. The FTSE100 remains on its back as cheaper oil and commodity prices weigh on the UK blue chip index. Rio Tinto lost over 200 points this morning, while Anglo American and Glencore were down 145 and 30 points respectively.

U.S. crude is down 3.45% despite escalating tensions in Ukraine, and negative pressure on oil prices has been in play since the failure to breach the 130bp mark following the announcement by the US and UK from a ban on Russian oil last week – a price action suggesting that last week’s highs factored in much of the bad news before they were announced. We could see further easing, and the $95/100bp area should be watched closely.

I continue to believe that the risks remain on the upside, such as sanctions on Russian oil, the constraint of supplies from OPEC countries which are partly unwilling to increase production and investments in fossil fuels which will be dropped as soon as possible, and news that nuclear talks with Iran have been suspended due to “external factors”, as EU foreign policy chief Josep Borell tweeted. So Iranian oil is not what is driving oil prices down this morning. But, one of the biggest arguments in favor of the oil bears at this point is the fact that energy prices have risen so much that they will slow economic growth, through lower demand and eventually monetary policy. more restrictive.

Speaking of central bank policy, the Federal Reserve (Fed) has almost a 100% chance of raising the interest rate by 25 basis points this week, and there will likely be no surprises as the Fed really isn’t willing to rock the boat at this point. . However, there is a risk that we will hear a hawkish statement given that the pressure on inflation will not let up any time soon. The US Dollar is preparing to test the 100 mark, while the S&P500 is now heading towards a deadly cross formation on its daily chart.

The Bank of England (BoE) is also expected to raise the discount rate, while the Bank of Japan and the Central Bank of Turkey are expected to maintain the status quo.

Elsewhere, soaring nickel prices are undermining optimism that rising fuel prices would hasten the electric transition. Tesla shares ended the week below $800 and downside risks prevail.