Ryan Selkis, founder of crypto-data firm Messari, says bitcoin (BTC) is a ‘bet against the grain’ for 2022 – meaning that from a performance perspective, the asset could become an underdog rank in a territory it has dominated for a long time.
The dynamics of the crypto industry have changed, argues Selkis. While Bitcoin die-hards remain focused on BTC and Ethereum maximalists on ETH, investors are putting a lot more money into assets that perform better in the short term, he says.
He calls these kinds of investors “crypto mercenaries” – degens to ordinary cryptocurrency people. They typically target emerging layer one digital assets such as Solana (SOL), Terra (LUNA) and Avalanche (AVAX) – the trio that have now achieved meme status as SoLunAvax.
Over the past year, SoLunAvax has embezzled huge sums of money from Ethereum, and possibly Bitcoin, according to some data. A number of other upcoming blockchains, including Cosmos, Near, and Polygon, have also claimed their share.
Selkis said there is another subgroup of investors who “would never go for bitcoin.” These he calls “generalists”, and they prefer everything else except BTC. Specifically, “generalists” are drawn to a combination of layer 1 crypto assets, those in decentralized finance (Defi) and others.
In this sense, the founder and CEO of Messari believes that “Bitcoin is the bet against the grain of the year”, according to a recent Publish on Twitter. Selkis referred the questions to Emily Coleman, spokesperson for Messari, who did not respond to BeInCrypto’s requests for comment.
Bitcoin’s dominance is declining
While some experts predicted the price of BTC to hit $ 100,000 this year due to increased institutional adoption, Ryan Selkis has been silent on the price.
However, the trend suggests a further decline in bitcoin’s market share in terms of dominance in 2022, perhaps up to 10%, according to one analyst. predicted.
Bitcoin’s market value relative to altcoins – essentially any other crypto asset that isn’t BTC – is now 39.3%, its lowest since June 2018.
Data shows that more and more people are ditching bitcoin and turning to altcoins instead. This dovetails with Selkis’ “bet against the grain” expectations.
Additionally, the waning dominance could indicate that some altcoins, especially layer one blockchains such as Terra, Fantom, or Avalanche, could start to decouple from BTC price action.
One of the obvious reasons for this is Bitcoin’s failure to develop as a productive asset, said crypto analyst Austin Barack. Bitcoin has failed to attract developers who create more usable protocols and applications on Bitcoin.
It has also struggled to cope with the increase in transaction volumes, which has led to the urgency of other blockchain networks that could do so. As new networks develop, Bitcoin stands to lose more if the highs do not accept the change.
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